Blog Post | A Change Is Gonna Come?

Is Christian Lindner's influence in the upcoming discussions about who will form the new German government as overinflated as his ego, or does he really have all the power? The election campaign began with three frontrunners, all vying to be Mama Merkel's replacement, but as the final votes are counted, could the FDP really be holding all of the cards?

It looks like whichever constellation makes up the next German government, Christian Lindner's Free Democratic Party (FDP) will be one part of the trilogy. With 11.5% of the votes nationwide, and with 92 seats in the Bundestag, the FDP is the fourth largest party in Germany after Sunday's general election. The Greens failed to get the high number of votes expected of them and the SPD pulled off a political miracle. Left for dead at the beginning of the year, the SPD was predicted by every news outlet and political pundit in the Federal Republic to lose all of its votes to the Greens, and Olaf Scholz stood less chance of becoming Chancellor than my dead grandmother. He proved the entire nation wrong and won the election with 25.7% of the vote and 206 seats in Parliament. Merkel's party, the CDU, suffered their worst result in the party's history, with the voters giving all policticians a clear message: "We want change!"

Annalena Baerbock, the Chancellor candidate of the Green party and the only woman in the contest had a truly awful campaign; seeing her party lose a sizeable chunk of their votes in the last few weeks before election day. At the start of the year, the Greens were riding high in the polls, and it looked like an almost forgone conclusion that Germany would have their first ever Green Chancellor. Then a dirty tricks campaign revealed that she had not been completely honest on her CV. As the first person in the history of mankind to ever have made themselves look better than they actually are on a CV, this is, understandably, a truly heinous crime. Unlike the CDU and their mask scandal, Azerbaijan scandal, Andreas Scheuer, the lack of any noticable change in living standards during their 16 years in power, this CV debacle made voters trust Annalena less than a white, middle-class man in a suit. Of the two men running against Annalena, one is currently in charge of the Finance Office, which is, at present, embroiled in one of the biggest financial scandals in decades. The other is a member of a party that has done so little to raise living standards for low income workers in Germany, that 1 in 5 children live in poverty. They were, however, very honest on their CVs, so do we really mind about the starving kids and billions missing in taxes?

Unfortunately, over on the other side, the far-right AfD party, despite losing some votes, managed to garner 10.3% and 83 seats. In Berlin, where I am located, we are surrounded by a sea of far-right, foreigner-hating, anti-maskers, third-reich worshipping Germans who actually put a cross on the ballot for a party whose slogan was "Germany. But normal." Sadly, this isn't even a satirical joke. The far-right party led by a proudly unvaccinated lesbian with a brown wife (true story), is the fifth largest political party in Germany. They have dropped from third place, but even one vote to these violent maniacs is one vote too many as far as I'm concerned.

So, as we wait, hoping that the coalition will be the Ampel (traffic light - SPD+Greens+FDP), is there reason to be hopeful? Well, possibly. Social policies and the environment are the hot topics being discussed in these coalition talks, and if the Greens and the SPD get their policies accepted by the FDP, this can only be a good thing: for the majority and not just for the few. The FDP are, however, notorious for not budging on things like tax hikes for the wealthy, so this could be where the talks fall apart. If the Greens make the tragic decision and form a coalition with the FDP and the CDU, then they should really, really enjoy their last four years in power. If the Twitterverse is to be believed, abandoning their supporters with this costellation of free-market ideaolgues will force all of their voters to desert them for a party with more integrity. Will these politicians, who are about to form one of the most important governments in the world, at a time when we need leaders who are going to push things forward at lightening speed to give us a even a minuscule chance of preventing climate catastrophe, do the right thing and compromise; or will the old order be maintained? 

Personally, I would have preferred it if the SPD and the Greens had gotten enough of the votes to not need a third partner, but this was not to be. So, let's hope that the FDP, and in particular, Mr Lindner's ego, don't throw too many spanners in the works. We need quick, lasting change, with the environment and social policies given the utmost attention. Will any of these parties keep their promises or will we be disappointed once again? I'm trying very hard to stay positive, so let's just say that I'm curious and will withhold any judgement until a final decision has been reached.